Mar 04, 2016

NRF forecasts retail sales to grow in 2016 by 3.1%

The National Retail Federation released its 2016 economic forecast, projecting retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) will grow 3.1 percent, higher than the 10-year average of 2.7 percent. NRF also announced it expects non-store sales in 2016 to grow between 6 and 9 percent.

Other Economic Insights:

  • Economic growth should be more of the same and uneven. It is likely to be in the range of 1.9 to 2.4 percent in 2016.
  • Employment gains of approximately 190,000 on an average monthly basis are expected. While that pace is down from 2015, it is consistent with the labor market growing near its underlying trend. By year end, unemployment should drop to 4.6 percent.
  • Prospects for consumer spending are straightforward — more jobs equals more income, which equals more spending. However, spending will come largely from the growth in jobs and not as much from increased wages.


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